Rain stops play…
After dinner around the campfire end of last week, with a group of landsailors from Perth, I went to bed around midnight, with the sound of rain still falling on the tin roof of the old mining exploration caravan we are staying in. In the morning the rain had stopped, but we found the camp area had turned into a bit of a quagmire, which indicated a lot of rain had fallen over the last 12 hours. We skidded down the muddy hill to the foil trays we had left on the lake surface to measure the amount of rain, only to find one of them had floated away, which gives you some idea of what we were looking at. The other tray indicated that between 15-20mm had fallen in the night, and the sky was still not clear. Later that morning more thunder clouds dropped another 5-10mm.
This had flooded the entire surface of the lake and has rendered it unusable for possibly another month, which sadly means an end to this year’s land record challenge, which is a very disappointing blow to us all. The Greenbird was in fantastic shape to shatter the record and it is very frustrating not to get any high speeds in whatsoever.
So why the peculiar weather and why could we not predict this? I will be going into a more detailed weather analysis in the next blog post, but in brief, July saw twice its monthly average fall in 2 days at the end of the month, then August saw its monthly average quota fall over the last 12 hours. If the rain comes in smaller showers with regular intervals, it can evaporate quicker and soaks into the soils surrounding the lake. When so much falls in such a short time, the clay in the soil seals the surface and streams start running onto the lake. This effectively increases the catchment area of the lake and means more water ends up pooling on the surface. It is not uncommon to have monsoon type conditions later in the year, but they are certainly a few months early this year, and almost impossible to predict.
So where from here? Well, the Greenbird is now dismantled and out of the big puddle and looking for its next record opportunity, the same time, same place, next year. In the meantime, we will have the Greenbird ice craft in action in Montana in January and February.
So how do I feel? After many years of uncooperative weather I am use to it by now, but it does not make it any the less frustrating. Almost every other sport or race has direct competitors, where it does not matter what the conditions are, they are the same for everybody and all you have to do is beat your rivals and there is always a winner.
In our situation, we have to wait to get the same (or near) conditions as the current record holders had in 1999 before we even have an opportunity to compete and this makes it incredibly difficult. When we can’t set a new record due to the weather, it is not like losing a race, but it is more like an athlete not even being allowed to enter the arena, let alone get on the starting blocks.
All we can do is maximise our chances of getting favourable winds by longer standby periods and looking at all possible venues. Persistence will always win.
Here’s our final video for this season from Lake Lefroy.
Hi guys, you unfortunately picked a very strange year, weather wise, to come to Australia.
We normally have winter westerly frontal systems that come through every several days…just hasn’t happened this year. And, unseasonaly heavy rain.
You should have a look at Lake Gairdner (South Australia) before you go home. Its a much bigger salt lake where they run the Australian Land Speed Record cars.
Cheers, MIke.
Comment by Mike — September 12, 2008 @ 1:26 am
The unusual weather around the world since 2007 can be attributed to the La Niña effect. 1988/1989 had similar conditions.
I mean you are on a lake after all, be it a salt lake or otherwise. It should not be a surprise that occasionally you might get water in the lake.
To blame it on climate change is a little premature. The climate is in constant change. It always has been and always will be. I’m not questioning climate change but when certain patterns are active whether that be El Niño or La Niña which directly affects Australia and has known outcomes perhaps these should be observed before embarking on a project that requires certain conditions to prevail?
Comment by Jonathan Fox — September 12, 2008 @ 6:42 pm
I am now back in the UK, catching up on a backlog of work and starting preparations for the upcoming Ice, and possibly land, sailing in North America.
However, to shed a little more light on the weather / climate change discussion, here is a little technical input;
Australia is an area of ‘Low rainfall’ and the definition of this says that the rains are irregular and often unpredictable, not the result of climate change. However, long term records suggest that the size and frequency of irregular events is increasing, which is an effect of long term climate change and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes, alter the earth’s natural balances and are leading to a global climate change.
So there we have it. Climate change may not be solely responsible for the poor weather conditions this year, but the conditions we experienced are certainly an example of the type of conditions that will become more frequent in the event of prolonged climate change.
Therefore, if by us highlighting this change in the global media, getting peoples attention and making them think about climate change and focusing more thought on renewable power, then we will have achieved our objective.
To go into it further, as well as the physical mechanisms of climate change, there are also random, unpredictable fluctuations within the climate system which account for a significant proportion of climate variability.
You are right Jonathan, that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has a big effect on Australian climate and the best known extremes of the SOI are El Nino events. However, in the South West region of Australia, it is believed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a more pronounced effect, especially on the rainfall patterns in the area. The IOD is defined by an index that is the SST (sea surface temperature anomalies in an area of the Indian ocean). Without wanting to go into too much technical detail, these are just some of the factors that effect the weather and although these influences and effects are useful for short term predictions, they are impossible to accurately forecast in the long term.
For me, more unusual than the rain we encountered was the lack of wind. If it had been windy, the water that was on the lake would have blown to one side and we could have still run the Greenbird. But, for
8 weeks we did not see one wind event, compared to last year when we had 4 ‘big’ wind events in a 6 day window. Maybe last year was unusually good, maybe this year was unusually bad, but no amount of debate here will solve that conundrum. All we can do is be on record ready standby, at the best locations worldwide, at the most likely time of year to encounter record setting weather conditions. If the conditions we experience are unfavourable and highlight a changing environment, then this story needs to be told.
Comment by Richard — September 15, 2008 @ 12:08 pm
Bit of weather news ,as of 16-9 the lake is great again ,and very smooth due to the 4 ‘big wind ” events in the last 6 days,
sorry,
Paul
Comment by Paul — September 16, 2008 @ 12:43 pm
What a shame you couldn’t have waited, sounds like it is perfect now! Still, it gives you the chance to try again, and it keeps the dream alive, the only thing more disappointing that not being able to climb Everest is the realization that there’s nothing left to do once you’ve done it!
Keep up the good work, and maybe see you in Montana!
Comment by Andrew Macpherson — September 17, 2008 @ 6:39 pm
Well, I screwed up. Since we left Australia, there has been at least two wind events that may well have provided record conditions. Without being there, we will never know the water situation and how dry the surface really was, or how smooth it was, but both are now immaterial (I don’t want to know Paul!). The lesson from this is the same as lessons learnt before, that no matter how bad the situation is looking, you just have to hang around for a long time to maximise the chances of seeing the right conditions. The problem with doing this is that we are still on a very tight budget and when you need NALSA (USA) observers, film crews, etc, present, every week costs money and you have to try to choose the best ‘window’ that you can afford. This year I got it wrong. The whole standby window should have been about 3 - 4 weeks later, but forecasting this years unusual weather was impossible.
Breaking records seems to be a permanent game of double or quits, always seeming to double the time, effort and expense in order to get the record secured. So here we are once again, the solution is to double the standby time, both for ice and land record windows, arrive early, leave late, and this is what we will do in 2009.
Comment by Richard — September 23, 2008 @ 10:40 am